The Super Bowl Not-Drinking Game

I was all set to write up a “Super Bowl XLIV Drinking Game” for Sunday’s game.

Then this morning the news broke that Madison, Wisconsin – where I live, work, and annoy my mail carrier by refusing to clear a proper path to my mailbox – was named the 15th drunkest city in America.

My response was immediate.

Really, 14 cities topped us?

But, wanting to be sensitive to the issue and not wanting to contribute to my fine city’s obvious penchant for overindulgence of fine and not-so-fine liquors, I consulted Wikipedia in an attempt to come up with a substitute vice.

And, being brazenly immature, I decided upon nose picking.

So here is my “Super Bowl XLIV Nose-Picking Game.”

Kathleen Falk, I hope you appreciate my teatotaling efforts!

If announcers Jim Nantz and Phil Simms promote Undercover Boss, pick.

If announcers Nantz and Simms promote Survivor: Heroes vs. Villains, pick.

If announcers Nantz and Simms attempt an awkward segue from a CBS promotion to game action (“Peyton Manning is the boss of this game,” or “The Saints secondary is looking for a way to survive Indy’s passing attack”), pick from your weak hand.

If the cameras focus on one of the Miami Dolphins’ many celebrity owners (the game being held at Miami’s Sun Life Stadium, of course), including Marc Anthony, Jennifer Lopez, and Gloria Estefan – pick.

If the cameras focus on Ron Jaworski, celebrity owner of the defunct Philadelphia Soul of the now-defunct Arena Football League, pick with your friend’s finger.

If The Who performs “Baba O’Riley,” pick.

If The Who performs “Pinball Wizard,” pick.

If The Who performs “Won’t Get Fooled Again,” pick David Caruso’s nose.

If Roger Daltrey has a wardrobe malfunction, pick your congressperson’s nose.

If the camera shows Archie or Eli Manning, pick.

If the camera shows Reggie Bush on-again, off-again girlfriend Kim Kardashian, pick.

If the camera shows Kim Kardashian’s stepfather Bruce Jenner injecting Botox into his face, pick your plastic surgeon’s nose.

If Peyton Manning throws a touchdown, pick.

If Drew Brees throws a touchdown, pick.

If Manning or Brees eats a hot dog on the sidelines during the game, pick the wife of your best friend’s nose.

If Dr. Oz mentions the word “poop,” pick. (Not Super Bowl related, but just had to bring it up. That M.D. is obsessed with BMs!)

If CBS promotes the Red Cross’s Haiti Relief Fund, pick (and then donate).

If Jim Nantz mispronounces the word “Haiti,” pick your brother-in-law’s nose.

If Nantz or Simms mentions “Hurricane Katrina,” pick.

If Nantz or Simms starts to sing “Rock You Like A Hurricane,” pick Klaus Meine’s nose.

If the Colts rush for more than 100 total yards in the game, pick the pizza delivery guy’s nose.

If the Saints fail to generate a turnover, pick your neighbor’s nose.

If game MVP Peyton Manning hoists the Vince Lombardi trophy, pick.

If game MVP Drew Brees hoists the Vince Lombardi trophy, pick your bookie’s nose.

Enjoy the game.

Final prediction: Indianapolis 35, New Orleans 27.

State Of The Big Ten

Every month of the year seems to be dominated by one particular sport.

April is ruled by the return of baseball and the hope that springs from fans everywhere (except those in the Pittsburgh, Kansas City, and Baltimore-Washington, D.C. areas).

May is when the NBA playoffs are at their most compelling. Yes, they start in April and end in June, but the early rounds proceed at a pace slower than the director’s cut of Berlin Alexanderplatz and the Finals are typically as competitive as a Man v. Food episode pitting John Madden against a stack of baby-back ribs.

September-January? While some would say that the horsehide is foremost in their minds until the World Series wraps, it’s hard to argue that the dominance of football – pro and college – is unrivaled from back-to-school time through Groundhog Day (and slightly beyond).

And at least in my house, July and August are all about CBS’s Big Brother, which is as much of a sport as horse racing or Canadian Football.

College basketball has always owned March – they don’t call it “July Madness” – but the game takes center stage one month earlier than that.

Yes, February is undoubtedly the slowest sports month of the year, but that’s easy to forget if you concentrate on college hoops for 28 days, which isn’t hard since anyone with the most basic of cable systems can check out several games a night.

Once again, it would seem that Big Ten followers are seeing some of the best and most competitive games in the country, with the conference boasting more higher-ranked teams outside the perpetually-dominant Big East. (But when you have 43 teams in your conference, you’re bound to have some standouts.)

But that view isn’t shared by all, as the Big Ten is ranked just fifth in recent RPI rankings while ESPN’s Bracketologist extraordinaire Joe Lunardi has just four teams from the Big Ten in his field of 65.

But Lunardi has none of the four – Michigan State, Purdue, Wisconsin, and Ohio State – seeded less than fifth. Could more sneak in as lower seeds – possibly even as much as last year’s seven – with a quality win or two?

Well, if Judas Priest can win a Grammy, I guess anything’s possible. But it doesn’t seem likely.

Let’s take a quick look at the top seven teams in the conference and where they stand heading into the most important month of the regular season.

1. Michigan State (9-0 in conference as of 2/1). The Spartans have been dominating the conference record-wise, but hardly game-by-game: They haven’t won convincingly since a 71-53 win at Iowa on January 9, and since then beat both Minnesota and Michigan by just a point (or as the ubiquitous Wayne Larrivee would annoyingly and repeatedly say, “the slimmest of margins”). The Spartans are obviously going to the tournament, but with their next two games at Wisconsin and at Illinois, they likely won’t survive the first week of February unscathed.

2. Purdue (6-3). Of the four teams currently tied for second in the conference, Purdue has the best chance of catching Michigan State by the simple fact that they still play them twice. Coming off a thrilling home victory over Wisconsin and then a 20-point blowout of outmanned Penn State, Matt Painter’s team has fully rebounded from its three-game slide and seems to be playing its best basketball of the season. With guard Lewis Jackson back, those games against Michigan State become even more intriguing than an episode of Jersey Shore. Assuming those games are competitive, the Boilermakers should be seeded very comparably to the Spartans come tourney time.

3. Wisconsin (6-3). The fact that the Badgers are as winning as many games as they are despite low preseason expectations and despite the loss of Jon Leuer on January 9 means that Bo Ryan might be the best coach in the country. And while Wisconsin’s upcoming schedule is favorable, fans have to be nervous about the team’s continued tendency to go on shooting droughts that seem to last longer than one of Heidi Montag’s marathon plastic surgery sessions. But what keeps the Badgers winning is stifling defense and the uncanny knack for at least one player to bail the team out every game with clutch shooting. With that defense, the Badgers could run the table, but if they don’t start getting more shooting consistency from Jason Bohannon and Jordan Taylor – and something, anything, from Tim Jarmusz – they could drop some close games down the stretch. But it is hard to imagine Bo Ryan not getting this team into the tournament for the twelfth straight season.

4. Ohio State (6-3). Finally at full strength, this is a dangerous team, as they showed with a 22-point beatdown of Minnesota. The main concern: lack of bench production. Still, Thad Matta should be able to ride his starters to a high seed in the men’s tournament.

5. Illinois (6-3). Though tied with Purdue, Wisconsin, and Ohio State in conference wins, Illinois has ranked up wins – close wins – against a fairly easy schedule. They still have to play Wisconsin and Ohio State twice, travel to Purdue, and host Michigan State. If they can find a way to win maybe half of those games, they make the tournament. I guessing they can’t – even Wisconsin should be able to feast on their lousy defense – and they won’t.

6. Minnesota (4-5). Tubby Smith’s team started out 11-3 but has now lost six of its last seven. Most discouraging was its defensive performance against Ohio State, where it allowed the Buckeyes to shoot 63 percent en route to a 85-63 loss. The schedule isn’t terrible the rest of the way, but it won’t matter who they play if they don’t improve in a hurry. Disappointed Minnesota Vikings fans looking for solace in their Gophers will have to look elsewhere, unless any comfort can be found in yet another NIT tournament bid.

7. Michigan (4-5). The Wolverines have been one of the most disappointing teams in the Big Ten, particularly on the offensive side of the ball. If their role players could start hitting more shots – especially three-pointers, which they put up too often – it’s not impossible to see Manny Harris and DeShawn Sims carrying this team to an NCAA bid. The Wolverines have two quality wins on their resumé over Connecticut and Ohio State and they’ll have chances in the next month against Wisconsin, Michigan State, and the Badgers again. But they’ll have to shoot better to catch Joe Lunardi’s and – more importantly – the selection committee’s attention.

In Defense Of Brett Favre

Packer fan on Monday is happy.

Packer fan feels like Monday is “I told you so” day.

Packer fan told Viking fan that Favre would blow it.

Packer fan told Viking fan not to fall in love with Brett Favre.

Packer fan told Viking fan that Favre would break his heart like he had done to Packer fan so many times, most notably in the 2007 NFC Championship Game.

But Packer fan is missing the big picture.

Without Favre, the Vikings weren’t in the NFC Championship Game.

Without Favre, the Vikings probably weren’t even in the playoffs. (Has Packer fan never seen Tavaris Jackson?)

Without Favre, the Vikings wouldn’t have swept the season series with the Packers.

Without Favre in purple, the Packers would have won the NFC North in 2009.

Without Favre in purple, the Packers would have had an easier road to Super Bowl XLIV.

Am I saying that the Packers would be headed to Miami were it not for Brett Favre signing with the Minnesota Vikings? No. The Packers defense, which self-destructed all year against big-name quarterbacks, couldn’t get past the Cardinals and wouldn’t have gotten past the Saints either. And they certainly couldn’t have, as the Vikings defense did, held Drew Brees to fewer than 200 yards passing.

Heck, the Packers defense in 2009 couldn’t hold Tampa Bay rookie quarterbacks to fewer than 200 yards passing.

Packer fan laughing on Monday is either ignorant of two things or ignoring two things:

Favre, by making division rival Minnesota much, much better, got his revenge on Ted Thompson in 2009.

And Favre is not, although it’s easy to point to one admittedly stupid play, the reason the Vikings lost Sunday.

The Vikings lost Sunday because their offensive line couldn’t protect Brett Favre from getting the beating of his life.

The Vikings lost Sunday because Adrian Peterson is the most turnover-prone player in the league since Daunte Culpepper ruined many a Minnesotan’s Sunday afternoon. On top of the three fumbles that he was fortunate to recover, Peterson should get credit for that botched handoff exchange inside the New Orleans five-yard line that almost certainly cost the Vikings a touchdown.

The Vikings lost Sunday because their special teams couldn’t resist giving up a big play, in this case a 61-yard kickoff return that four plays later gave the Saints their first lead.

The Vikings lost Sunday because of two killer fourth-quarter fumbles by their normally sure-handed receivers Bernard Berrian and Percy Harvin.

The Vikings lost Sunday because of a stupid penalty that put them in the third and long situation that made Brett Favre feel that he had to throw to get extra yards for Ryan Longwell’s should-have-been game winning field goal.

The Vikings lost Sunday because they picked the wrong side of the coin at the commencement of overtime.

The Vikings lost Sunday because of a very questionable pass interference call in overtime that put New Orleans in field goal range.

Was Favre blameless on Sunday? Absolutely not. His interception with seven seconds left to play in regulation was the most disastrous play in a day loaded with disastrous plays for the Vikings.

But Favre’s season, and that of the Vikings, was far more triumph than tragedy.

Although I would go broke betting on what Favre is going to do next, it seems relatively safe to say we’ve probably witnessed Favre’s final year as a Minnesota Viking or active player for any team in the NFL.

And that’s why Packer fan should be happy on Monday.

Because without Favre in Minnesota, the Packers become the team to beat in the NFC North.

With Favre in Minnesota, the Packers would remain a Wild Card contender with a promising young quarterback.

Who, when given a chance to win a game for his team in this year’s postseason, blew it.

Don’t Fight The Inevitable

Some things are inevitable. And no, I’m not just talking about death, taxes, and the eventual Aerosmith reunion.

I’m talking about Jay Leno’s odd stranglehold on the American TV viewer.

As much as I dislike Leno and as much as I would like to see his future in television met with a resounding “who cares” by the American public, it’s inevitable that upon his return to The Tonight Show, he will immediately resume beating David Letterman’s head in. Ratings-wise, I mean.

I’m talking about my need to purchase electronics.

As much as I bristle at the notion of buying a Blu-Ray player, it’s inevitable that one day I will cave to the pressure put upon me by the endless sales reel that I hear every time that I’m at Target. (“Still watching movies on DVD? Still peeing in your pants, too?”)

In the world of sports, there are other things that are inevitable:

1. The Vikings will lose. There are a small percentage of Packers fans that have accepted Green Bay’s earlier-than-anticipated playoff exit and are now cheering on the quarterback who kept them at or near the top of the NFC for a remarkable 16 seasons.

Then there is the other 99 percent of green and gold supporters, all of whom should go to bed very happy on Sunday night.

Look, the Vikings have had a terrific season and Packers fans should be envying their trip to New Orleans. But there are several logical reasons why the Vikings have little chance to advance to Super Bowl XLIV.

The Vikings’ 2009 offensive stats are great, but they aren’t as good as the Saints’. Favre’s team scores fewer points, passes for fewer yards, and runs for fewer yards. And the Vikings commit more penalties. (The Vikings are still more disciplined than the Packers, but outside of Gilbert Arenas, who isn’t?)

Defensively, the Vikings have been better than the Saints, but those stats can be misleading. The Purple People Eaters Mark II don’t play as well on the road (they were gashed at Arizona, at Carolina, and at Chicago in the latter half of the season), and they haven’t played as well overall since losing linebacker E.J. Henderson and since cornerback Antoine Winfield has been hobbled by a foot injury.

Overall, the Vikings secondary is as questionable as Heidi Montag’s sanity, a fact hidden for most of the season by their terrific defensive line and their terrific pass rush. But with DE Ray Edwards and DT Kevin Williams question marks for Sunday’s game, the effectiveness of that pass rush is suddenly in doubt – not to mention their run-stopping ability.

But stats aside, the Vikings will lose simply because they are the Vikings. Going back to their last two NFC Championship appearances, they lost in 1999 when they were clearly the better team and they got embarrassed 41-doughnut in 2001 when they were far too good to be embarrassed 41-doughnut.

Could the Vikings beat the Saints and still prove the inevitable to be inevitable? Technically yes, since Minnesota could then go on and lose in the Super Bowl. But the Saints are much stiffer competition than either the Colts or the Jets. The inevitable will happen Sunday.

2. Nice Guys Finish Last. Going back to the Leno/Conan drama, there are numerous show-biz stories – far too many to detail here – that collectively dispel the long-held notion that Jay Leno is a nice guy. (The last couple of weeks should have erased whatever doubt was in anyone’s mind.)

That brings us to the Jets/Colts championship game: There is no doubt that Colts head coach Jim Caldwell – a Wisconsin native – is a decent, honorable family man who did not deserve the outpouring of criticism that came when he elected to sit many of his starters the last two weeks of the season. (Imagine what outcry he would have heard if Peyton Manning had torn his MCL and ACL playing in a meaningless game in week 17.)

There’s also no doubt that Jets head coach Rex Ryan – like his father Buddy Ryan and mentor Brian Billick – is the biggest tactless jerk since Kanye West. Ryan has already declared that he would be “shocked” if his team doesn’t beat the Colts on Sunday.

Unfortunately, Ryan’s braggadocio is well-placed. I think the Jets will win on Sunday

The Colts, despite their gaudy record, played in close games all season, barely squeezing out victories over mediocre teams like the Jaguars and the 49ers.

If the Jets can keep Peyton Manning and the Colts offense in check — just like they kept Philip Rivers and the Chargers offense in check – they should win.

The similarities between the Chargers and Colts are even more obvious than the similarities between “Ghostbusters” and “I Want a New Drug”: The Chargers owned the second-worst rushing attack in football last season. The Colts own the worst. The Jets’ defense, while it is statistically the best in the league overall, is particularly dominating against the pass.

If the Jets – with stud cornerback Derrelle Revis blanketing Reggie Wayne – can frustrate Manning into throwing a couple of errant passes (just as they did with Rivers), they will advance to New Orleans.

It seems odd, but the pressure is really on Peyton Manning in this game. He has to realize that his chances to move the ball against the Jets will be few and far between, and he knows he will get little help from Joseph Addai, Mike Hart, and fantasy football bust Donald Brown.

On the other side, Jets QB and professional Mark Consuelos look-alike Mark Sanchez can use his running game to calm his nerves. He just has to be smart enough to take advantage of the plays in the passing game when they present themselves later in the game. And they will present themselves later in the game.

I’m not thrilled at the prospect of hearing Rex Ryan run his mouth for the two weeks leading up to the Super Bowl, but as I’ve learned to accept the fact that the McDLT is never coming back, I’m expecting to have to learn to accept Ryan’s jabber jawing.

3. The Wisconsin Badgers Men’s Basketball Team Will Keep Winning. By most accounts, Bo Ryan’s team should be panicking right now. After losing arguably their best player in junior Jon Leuer with a wrist injury on January 9, the only thing more miserable than the team’s shooting percentage is the trailer for that new The-Rock-As-The-Tooth-Fairy movie.

The Badgers shot 20 of 52 from the floor against Northwestern, 19 of 47 against Ohio State, and 17 of 47 on Wednesday night against Michigan. That’s a lousy field goal percentage of 38.4. To put that in context, Iowa, the worst team in the Big Ten with an overall 7-12 record, is maintaining a field goal percentage of 42.7.

Without Leuer’s presence, the team is struggling to penetrate like my son struggles to beat me on The Price Is Right for Nintendo Wii (I guess six-year-olds just don’t know what mobile homes cost): The team’s been forced into more low-percentage three-point shots, and they’ve only hit 26 percent of them in the three games without Leuer.

Leuer’s teammates haven’t exactly been compensating for the loss of Leuer at the offensive end – Jordan Taylor has hit on just 12 of 29 shots since scoring a career-high 23 against Purdue, Tim Jarmusz is showing no signs of breaking out of his season-long scoring slump, and Keaton Nankivil has converted on just two of his 14 three-point attempts in the last three games.

But Bo Ryan’s team has won two of three games without Leuer because they continue to play great defense – seventh best in the country. As long as they can continue to hold teams to under 60 points a game, they will continue to win a majority of those games.

The Badgers also have the luxury of a deep bench, and everyone from Ryan Evans to Mike Bruesewitz to Rob Wilson – who scored 13 in the victory over Michigan – seems able to step it up whenever it’s needed. And it’s needed now more than ever.

While Trevon Hughes is obviously Wisconsin’s MVP with Leuer out, Jason Bohannon also deserves special credit this season for stepping up his game immeasurably. Although he had a rough night against Michigan (1-7, 0-4 three-point attempts), Bohannon is no longer just a threat from outside. He is now just as likely to drive hard to the basket, which has been a pleasure to watch all season.

The improvement in Bohannon’s production has been equaled over the last several months only by the improvement in David Letterman’s ratings.

Leno’s return to The Tonight Show on March 1 should be the inevitable end to Letterman’s brief resurgence; if the Badgers are lucky, they could get Jon Leuer back around the same time for the postseason.

But even without Leuer, a trip to the NCAA tournament – which would be Wisconsin’s twelfth appearance in a row – seems inevitable.

The Day After

As quickly as the Packers season ended Sunday afternoon in Arizona, I came to a sudden realization.

And no, it had nothing to do with a face-mask penalty that should have been called.

Nor did it have to do with how badly NBC has royally screwed themselves with this whole Jay Leno mess.

It had to do with the simple fact that I’ve been wrong about the Green Bay Packers all season.

Well, maybe I’m being too hard on myself. I did predict the Packers to have a strong season, but it’s hard to defend that when faced with the cold reality that I picked the god awful Bears to win the division.

After watching the Packers struggle early in the season, I decided that they were going to be as relevant in 2009 as Vanilla Ice, and I threw my NFC North love behind the division-leading Minnesota Vikings.

This, of course, I did just in time for them to go on their 7-1 tear, after which I declared them a virtual lock to represent the NFC in Super Bowl XLIV.

And we all know now how prescient that was.

Along the way, I also criticized Packers games for being as stimulating as an infomercial for “Malt Shop Memories,” a position I took largely due to the inordinate amount of penalties the team committed, which often served to slow game action down to an insufferable crawl.

The Packers then went out and played in two of the most entertaining games of this or any year, on December 20 at Pittsburgh, and Sunday’s Wild Card playoff game at Arizona.

The two games had more in common then simply being entertaining. Both games came down to a deciding play. Both games featured two defenses that were as soft as a Larry King interview. And in both games, a seemingly wonderful performance by Aaron Rodgers was overshadowed by a better performance by an opposing veteran quarterback.

Is it fair to criticize a quarterback who turned in a team record-shattering performance like Aaron Rodgers did on Sunday?

Is it fair to criticize The Beatles for Magical Mystery Tour?

Well, it’s not fair, but neither was jumping all over Brett Favre when the 2007 Packers lost to the New York Giants in the NFC title game. (An on-line Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel poll shows that 80 percent of respondents think that Favre’s overtime interception was more costly than Rodgers’s fumble, even though Lawrence Tynes had to actually win that game whereas Rodgers’s turnover more directly gave the game away.)

There’s no doubt that for the most part, Rodgers played brilliantly on Sunday. But in a game where his receivers were running free all day, he missed badly on several critical throws, the most obvious coming on the first play from scrimmage in overtime where he missed a wide open Greg Jennings on a play that would likely have ended the game.

Rodgers also continued his habit of holding on to the ball too long, contributing mightily to his five sacks, the most times he had been sacked since the inexplicable November 8 loss to Tampa.

Worst of all, Rodgers committed those two massive turnovers.

The interception on the first play started the Packers down the hole that they didn’t start to climb out of until the third quarter.

And the fumble in overtime was inexcusable, regardless of how you felt about Michael Adams’s face-mask yank or the helmet-to-helmet hit that Bertrand Berry laid on Rodgers two plays earlier.

But clearly, anyone looking for goats for Green Bay’s quick playoff exit would have to look no further than the Packers’ pass defense.

The unit was awful, as Arizona’s receivers were shockingly wide open all day, particularly in the middle of the field. Yes, Kurt Warner is good, but not even Joe Montana lining up against the cast of High School Musical should be allowed to throw more touchdowns (five) than incompletions (four) for 13 yards per pass play.

The Packers’s sixth-ranked pass defense now looks like more of a result of who they faced (Daunte Culpepper, Matt Hasselbeck, Matt Leinart) than how stout they were. After all, Ben Roethlisberger piled up 503 yards on them, while Brett Favre torched them for 515 yards and seven touchdowns in two games. Hey, even Tampa rookie Josh Freeman got three of his year’s ten touchdowns in his win over Green Bay.

But the Packers lousy defense did not stop at pass coverage. The Cardinals were not afraid of running on the Packers and notched an impressive 156 yards on just 23 rushes for an average of 6.8 yards per rush. And the Packers tackling was atrocious, particularly on Early Doucett’s second touchdown, where several defenders converged on the second-year player only to collide in an embarrassing heap while Doucett strolled into the end zone.

It’s a testament to the talent on the Packers that their defense can play so poorly, the offense can make so many mistakes, and yet they found themselves in a position to win the game in the extra period.

(I’ll give McCarthy a pass: I hated the decision to have Mason Crosby kick a 54-yard field goal that Crosby predictably missed. The miss gave the Cardinals a great chance to go up 24-0 that only Charles Woodson’s strip of Larry Fitzgerald prevented. I also hated that he didn’t let more time run off the clock before the Packers tied the game at 45. With 1:52 left, Arizona marched right down the field and should have won the game on an easy field goal that Neil Rackers missed horribly. But I had major love for the onside kick in the third quarter that continued the Packers’ momentum.)

If there’s a silver lining, the Packers should enter the 2010 season with a chip on their shoulder that may eliminate the slow start that plagued them in 2009. If they can play 16 games next year at the level they played the final eight games this year, they will run away with the NFC North and make a deep playoff run.

Of course, when it comes to the Packers, I’ve been wrong before.

When The Packers Go Marching In (To February)

One of the most peculiar things about having children is dealing with their short memories.

For example, recently my wife and I were reminiscing with our son about a friend of his that he had when he was between three and four years old.

My son and this child were inseparable at daycare, enjoyed several play dates together on the weekends, and for months not a day went by when we didn’t hear our son tell a story about this other child.

He now claims to have absolutely no recollection of this kid. It’s like the preschool version of an adult breakup where someone pretends to have forgotten someone who stole money or who posted naked pictures of their trysts on Facebook. Except in my son’s case, when he claims to have forgotten, he really has forgotten.

Football analysts tend to have short memories as well. Just a week after declaring the Minnesota Vikings’ 2009 season done after the purple had lost three out of four, many of those same analysts are now touting them as the best team in the NFC simply because they beat up on a completely disinterested Giants team at home to end the season.

It’s like the eighties teen sex romp The Last American Virgin: The movie was full of rottenness, but the ending was so interesting, that some people remember the entire movie fondly.

I wouldn’t necessarily argue that at some point in the season the Vikings were the best team in the NFC. But not now.

As the NFL’s second (or third, if you insist on paying attention to those preseason yawnfests) season starts, the Green Bay Packers are the best team in the conference and will represent the NFC in Jimmy Buffett Stadium on February 7.

Some may assume that I would use the Packers’ beatdown of the Cardinals in week 17 as evidence as to why I feel they will at least win Sunday’s rematch. But I don’t.

In fact, I disagree with Mike McCarthy’s decision to play his starters for the majority of a meaningless game. McCarthy came out of the game not only unscathed but applauded for his tactics in gaining an undeniable psychological edge over Arizona heading into their playoff meeting.

But what if Charles Woodson would have suffered a more severe injury? What if Aaron Rodgers and not Wes Welker had torn his MCL and ACL while padding a 26-point lead in the third quarter? (And has McCarthy seen his backup quarterbacks lately? That’s a more forgettable group than the cast members from Saturday Night Live’s 1985-1986 season.)

Should one of his best players gone down on Sunday, McCarthy would have been the least popular person in Green Bay since Brett Favre succumbed to the evil charms of Brad Childress.

But while I disagree with McCarthy, I understand why he did it.

He knows he has a very talented but young and undisciplined team. One look at the total penalties and penalty yards his team amassed this season tells him that his players’ abilities are sometimes overshadowed by their rawness.

McCarthy gambled that the risk of his young players losing their focus while sitting out a winnable game was greater than the risk of one of his stars suffering a serious injury. And of course even the most “professional” of teams (yes, that’s you, Indy) haven’t perfected the art of succeeding in the postseason after purposefully tanking in weeks 16 and 17.

No, I give the Packers the best odds to emerge from the NFC for this basic reason: All throughout the first half of the season, while the Packers were struggling to achieve a 4-4 record, Packers fans’ mantra was this: “If we could just figure out a way to protect our quarterback, we’d be so good.”

Well, they did and they are.

What has made the Packers so good since cleaning up their offensive line issues has less to do with their passing game and more to do with Ryan Grant: Fewer sacks equals fewer negative plays equals more manageable down-and-distances equals more offensive balance equals more Grant. Which has been a very good thing.

Which brings us back to Arizona. No team in the NFL, at only 365 rushing attempts all season, is less interested in running the football than the Cardinals. Last year they were able to surprise teams in the playoffs by running the ball effectively, but that’s a strategy they’ll unlikely be able to repeat against the Packers’ No. 1-ranked rush defense. (Arizona tallied 48 yards rushing in week 17.)

With Anquan Boldin at the very least hobbled by a left ankle injury and Charles Woodson being able to cover Larry Fitzgerald one-on-one as well as anybody, the Cardinals’ passing attack will be seriously depleted.

And while I think the Cardinals’ defense will play well, Rodgers will get his while the Packers defense will knock Warner into serious retirement comtemplation.

Retirement comtemplation? Did someone mention Brett Favre? While the Minnesota Vikings enter the postseason with a ton of issues, Favre’s play — to the annoyance of Packers fans waiting for the December swoon — has not been one of them.

But nearly everything else has been. The offensive line has been lousy, giving Favre no time to throw and Adrian Peterson no room to run.

Peterson has been fumble-prone, with his most glaring gaffe coming in overtime against Chicago that cost the Vikings not only a win but also a chance to secure the NFC’s No. 1 seed.

The Vikings defense has been questionable, with four of their last five opponents able to run for over 100 yards over their usually unpenetrable defensive front. Defensive playmaker Antonie Winfield has been slow to recover from a foot injury. Defensive leader E.J. Henderson is out. Their always-suspect pass defense was exploited in recent weeks by the average likes of Jay Cutler and Matt Moore.

Vikings fans should be downright horrified at the possibility of a third Packers/Vikings tilt this season. Packers fans should be licking their chops at such an opportunity.

They should also be licking their chops to play the Philadelphia Eagles. While it’s not completely unrealistic to expect a bounce back performance from Philly after being embarrassed last week, Andy Reid’s team simply doesn’t have the running attack or the defense to match Dallas’s.

The biggest concern anyone should have over picking Dallas next week is placing trust that Tony Romo, having at least temporarily silenced his critics by playing well this December, will suddenly turn into the NFL’s version of Reggie Jackson.

As much as I like Dallas’s run game and their defense, Romo is no Brett Favre. Though more experienced, Romo is also no Aaron Rodgers. Maybe more importantly, Dallas’s receiving corps is to Minnesota’s and Green Bay’s what American Pie 7 (yes, you read that right, there have been seven of them) is to the original.

That leaves us the Saints. The team that not long ago seemed as unstoppable as Phil Collins circa 1986. But just as the days of Sussudio and Invisible Touch (sadly) came to an end, so does it seem it’s time to bring the curtain down on the Saints, who haven’t had a decisive victory since November.

But seemingly every year a team that many have written off makes a run. Perhaps this is the year the Saints pull that trick.

But I doubt it. Regardless of who they have to play or where they have to play it out, it’s the Packers coming out of the NFC.

But if it is indeed New Orleans who travels to Miami in February, then all of us who overlooked the Saints would have to blame it on our short memories.

NFC North: Stock Down

When it comes to pop culture, I am as loyal as they come.

I was one of the few people who kept watching The Facts of Life even after Mrs. Garrett left.

And while I appreciate Lost wrapping up its convoluted but fascinating run this season, I would stay tuned for many more years, long beyond the point of cultural relevancy.

Hey, I still watch Survivor, and that’s been culturally irrelevant for as long as John Kerry.

But I still love the show, and its most recent season, Survivor: Samoa, which ended Sunday night, was one of its best.

But again, this season’s finale fell victim to the same fatal flaw that has befallen many other seasons: The jury, suffering from hurt feelings, refuses to give the money to the strategic player (i.e. Russell) who schemed to vote out most of the jurors, and instead gives the $1 million to the nicer player who did little more than ride on the more strategic player’s coattails (i.e. Natalie).

Natalie didn’t deserve to be crowned the winner of Survivor: Samoa.

Earning their prize on the same day as Natalie, the Minnesota Vikings seemed to be no more deserving of being crowned the winner of the NFC North.

It was a horrible day for the NFC North, but especially for the division leader. Whoops, I mean winner. (Hard for me to put “Minnesota Vikings” and “winner” in the same thought.)

Let’s go through what the teams did on Sunday and what we can expect from them moving on:

1. Minnesota Vikings. I didn’t buy into the hype that Sunday night’s game was that important for the Vikings.

Yes, a victory would have put them one game behind the Saints for the NFC’s No. 1-seed, but the Vikings still would have to count on the Saints losing one of their last two while the Vikings would have to win their remaining two. And (Hello, Tampa Bay!) I don’t think the Saints will lose again.

Also, the Vikings are a dome team. The Saints are a dome team. I don’t feel that, if the teams were to meet in the playoffs, home field advantage would be that important. Both teams, like Chuck E. Cheese’s, are built for indoor fun.

And, for what it’s worth, the Vikings in recent years have owned the Saints. No, the Saints haven’t always been good. But neither have the Vikings.

The Vikings certainly didn’t look good Sunday night. Their vaunted offensive line looked as bad as the Packers ‘ O-Line did in October. Brett Favre was hit more often than Edward Norton in Fight Club. Adrian Peterson couldn’t run the ball (again). Their defense allowed the Panthers’ backup quarterback to torch them and their backup running back to slash them.

And if their play on the field wasn’t bad enough, now Chilly Childress and Favre are having a lovers’ spat over whether Favre should have been benched in the third quarter. Tired of watching Favre get sacked by Julius Peppers, Childress supposedly wanted Favre out, saving the old man for more important games down the road. Favre apparently refused and stayed in.

What’s important here is not if Childress was right to bench Favre. (He was. Even Tavaris Jackson couldn’t have played worse than Favre Sunday night.) What’s important is that Childress was overruled by Favre.

When a player can overrule a coach — and do so in such a public manner — you got problems. Right now the Vikings got problems.

Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: It’s December and Favre is running out of magic. And so are the Minnesota Vikings.

2. Green Bay Packers. Unlike the Vikings loss, I don’t see any red flags coming out of the Packers’ loss to Pittsburgh.

Yes, the highly-touted Packers defense allowed the Steelers to amass an incredible 537 yards of offense.

Yes, the Packers allowed the Steelers to win the game on an 81-yard drive with only 1:54 left to play.

Yes, Mason Crosby missed another chip shot field goal that proved crucial.

But this game had the stench of a loss long before Mike Wallace (was Morely Safer on the IR?) secured both feet in-bounds with no time left on the clock.

The Steelers came into this game a wounded animal known for playing up or down to their level of competition. Though the loss was heartbreaking, the Packers did many things right: They kept the penalties down (7 for 53 yards). The offensive line continued its strong play as Aaron Rodgers was sacked only once. And Rodgers continued his stellar play.

No doubt any Packers fan watching the performances of Rodgers and Favre on Sunday were happy they had Rodgers in green and gold.

With games against Seattle and Arizona (with the 49ers loss on Sunday, the Cardinals likely will have nothing to play for in week 17) on the horizon, the Packers are in very good shape and look to be the most dangerous team in the division come January.

3. Chicago Bears. Same old story for the Not-So-Scary Monsters of the Midway: Bad defense (31 points to Baltimore Sunday). Awful quarterback play (Jay Cutler was 10-for-27 for 94 yards and three picks for a 7.9 QB rating on Sunday). Continued disappointing production from Matt Forte (69 yards rushing and a lost fumble).

It’s hard to imagine the Bears being good any time soon. Although with how Minnesota has been playing outdoors lately, the Bears beating Minnesota next Monday night suddenly doesn’t seem like such an impossibility.

4. Detroit Lions. Make all the jokes you want about the Lions, but this team took the Arizona Cardinals — a team who had plenty to play for at game time — deep into the fourth quarter. And that was with their starting QB and starting RB out with injuries. (Watching Daunte Culpepper play quarterback is as stomach-churning as finding a toenail in your McChicken.)

If Matthew Stafford can stay healthy next year, would it be too surprising to see the Bears owning the NFC North cellar starting in 2010?

That is, if the Vikings can stay out of it.

Your Holiday Viewing List

I have a friend who is an extremely organized individual. (I might go so far as to call him my “best friend,” but if he reads this and doesn’t agree, then I’ll look like a schmuck, so I’ll just stick with “friend.”) When we lived together while in college, I marveled at his “to do” lists that covered every bit of his daily routine, no matter how seemingly trivial.

Part of me found it ridiculous, part of me was extremely impressed at his attention to detail. 

Well, although I eschew them most of the year, during the holiday season the utilization of least a few lists are almost mandatory. List for who will receive a holiday card. List for who to buy for. List for what to buy them. List for what you want. List for groceries to buy for holiday gathering. List for liquor to buy for holiday gathering.  List for liquor to consume at holiday gathering.

Well, with all of those lists, you don’t want to forget perhaps the most important one of all: The What To Watch On TV While On Vacation (Or Furlough) List. And since most programs are in reruns this time of year — still looking forward to that Survivor finale this weekend — that list can be almost strictly sports.

So here’s what to watch this holiday season. And if you’re lucky, you’ll have a new HDTV set to watch it on (if you can get the kids to give their new Wii games a rest).

Saturday, December 19. College Basketball: Duke vs. Gonzaga, 3 PM, CBS. Don’t go trolling for meaningless college football bowl games just yet: This matchup of Top 15 teams is a great way to spend time waiting for Big Ten conference play to start. The Bulldogs have been better than anticipated, and Duke is well, Duke, currently sitting at No. 2 in the RPI rankings despite their lone loss to the Badgers. 

Saturday, December 19. NFL: Dallas @ New Orleans, 7:20 PM, NFL Network. An intruging game unfortunately buried on a Saturday night on a channel many people don’t get. But if you can watch it, it’s a can’t-lose proposition for most football fans: Either the Saints lose, which would be great because all of the perfection talk is tiring, or the Cowboys lose, which would be great because they’re the Cowboys.

Sunday, December 20. NFL: Miami @ Tennessee, 12 noon, CBS. Interested in wading through the quagmire of mediocre AFC teams fighting for a wild-card spot? Here’s the game for you. Beats wading through the quagmire of shoppers fighting for the last Elmo’s Tickle Hands at Walmart.

Sunday, December 20. NFL: Green Bay @ Pittsburgh, 3:15 PM, FOX. Two of the NFL’s most storied franchises facing off in December with playoff implications on the line? Sounds like a terrific game. And it should be. The problem for Steelers fans is that the way Pittsburgh is playing,  Steel City sports fans are beginning to pine for the Pirates to open spring training. The problem for Packers fans is that the Steelers, who simply have to be a better team than they’ve recently shown, are at home and should be more desperate for a win than Spencer Pratt is for publicity. The problem for Packers fans is that Green Bay is due for a bad game. The problem for Steelers fans is the Packers just had one, barely beating the awful Bears. The problem for Steelers fans is the Steelers have a lot of problems. Look for the Packers to officially end the Steelers’ hopes of returning to the Super Bowl.

Sunday, December 20. NFL: Minnesota @ Carolina, 7:20 PM, NBC. This is the best game NBC could get this week?

Monday, December 21. NBA: Milwaukee @ Indiana, 7 PM, FOX Sports Wisconsin. If the playoffs started today, the Bucks would be in as the sixth seed. But these are the Bucks and the playoffs are eons away. But any Bucks game now is worth watching to see rookie Brandon Jennings in action. And that’s huge.

Tuesday, December 22. College Basketball: Michigan State @ Texas, 6 PM, ESPN2. Texas has been rolling, beating opponents by an average of almost 32 points. Devotees of the Big Ten will learn a lot about how good No. 12 Michigan State is by how close they can stick to the Longhorns.

Wednesday, December 23. College Basketball: UW-Milwaukee @ Wisconsin, 8 PM, Big Ten Network. It’s highly doubtful that the Badgers, after their surprising loss to UW-Green Bay on Dec. 9, will take the Panthers, another in-state Horizon League team, lightly.

Friday, December 25. NBA: Cleveland @ Los Angeles Lakers, 4 PM, ABC. Those upset about not getting the Kobe vs. LeBron Finals last season can finally get a taste of what they missed. Those upset about not getting what they wanted for Christmas can start berating those people who failed to come through.

Sunday, December 27. NFL: Seattle @ Green Bay, 12 noon, FOX. Former QB back-up Matt Hasselbeck returns to Green Bay again. If the Packers wrap up a playoff spot by beating Pittsburgh (with some help), that’s probably the only storyline in a game lacking any real drama.

Sunday, December 27. College Basketball: Illinois-Chicago @ Wisconsin, 2:30 PM, Big Ten Network. If the Packer game is a dud, consider flipping over for this final non-conference game of the season. Even if the matchup isn’t intriging, Trevon Hughes and Jon Leuer are always worth a look.

Tuesday, December 29. College Football: Champs Sports Bowl (Miami vs. Wisconsin), 7 PM, ESPN. Deja vu time.  Make no mistake about it: That loss to Northwestern really stung, as the Wildcats accepted their invitation to the January 1 Outback Bowl, while the Badgers were relegated to the Champs Sports Bowl for the second year in a row despite having a much better team this season. In addition to going to the same bowl, the similarities to last year’s game are eerie: Wisconsin is again playing a team with a very efficient quarterback and skilled receivers that will enjoy a distinct home field advantage. While the Badgers secondary was inconsistent all season, they did finish the season strong with a shut-down performance against Hawaii. Add to that the presence of Scott Tolzien instead of Dustin Sherer, and you have to like the Badgers’ chances more than last year. It’s probably still Miami at the end, but, in what should be an entertaining, high-scoring game, it’s close.

Thursday, December 31. College Basketball: Ohio State @ Wisconsin, 1 PM, ESPN2. The Buckeyes without Evan Turner is like The Electric Company without Easy Reader. The Badgers should get a nice win to start the Big Ten season.

Friday, January 1. College Football: All day, particulalry Outback Bowl, Capital One Bowl, and Rose Bowl. Rooting for the Big Ten? Good luck. Auburn (playing Northwestern in the Outback), LSU (playing Penn State in the Capital One), and Oregon (playing Ohio State in the Rose) all look like winners. Ohio State in particular is in danger of embarassing themselves yet again and single-handedly bringing shame and disgrace on the conference in much the same way that the induction of ZZ Top brings shame and disgrace on the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame.

Be sure to check my always-updated sports on TV schedule for a complete list of what to watch. And here’s hoping your teams come through for you this holiday season.

Packers’ Success Hardly Entertaining

Believe it or not, it’s a good time to be David Letterman.

After some pundits questioned if his career could survive his embarrassing sex-in-the-workplace scandal, the late-night veteran is on a roll.

His ratings are up: His CBS show just earned its first November sweeps victory over NBC’s The Tonight Show since 1994.

Meanwhile, Letterman’s show-biz enemy Jay Leno is floundering with his new prime time venture, as his program has been declared a disaster from critics, audiences, and NBC affiliates sickened by the devastating impact Leno’s flaccid performance is having on their late local news.

Finally, Tiger Woods’s ongoing sex scandal has not only taken Letterman off the immorality hot seat, but it has a bizarreness – the car wreck, the text messages, the alleged existence of nude photos – and enormity – that list of women keeps growing like the Pittsburgh Steelers’ losing streak – that makes Letterman look as clean-cut as Pat Boone.

It’s also a good time to be a fan of the Green Bay Packers.

Or is it?

Riding a four-game win streak, the team is clearly playing its best football of the season.

Its Achilles’ heel, pass protection for quarterback Aaron Rodgers, has righted itself with the recent solid offensive line play of Chad Clifton, Daryn Colledge, Scott Wells, Josh Sitton, and Mark Tauscher.

Though the Packers still lead the league in sacks allowed, they’ve only allowed four in the last three games, a number that any NFL quarterback (or coach) could live with.

Aaron Rodgers has been stellar, more than withstanding the inevitable comparisons to Brett Favre, even as Favre is enjoying one of the best years of his never-ending career.

The switch to Dom Capers’s 3-4 defense has solidified remarkably quickly, as the Packers currently sit on top of the league in yards allowed per game, fourth in rush yards allowed, and third in pass yards allowed. They’re also tied for second in interceptions with 21.

Charles Woodson is being deservedly discussed as a viable defensive player of the year candidate.

The team seems to have found two future stars in rookies B.J. Raji and especially linebacker Clay Matthews, who earned NFC defensive player of the week honors for his two-sack, six-tackle, forced-fumble Monday-night performance against Baltimore.

The final few games of the Packers’ schedule, which once seemed to be an impossible stretch, is now looking like a cakewalk: Baltimore was easily dominated, the Chicago Bears stink on any field, the Steelers have collapsed faster than Jon and Kate’s marriage, Seattle’s been a year-long disappointment, and the Cardinals likely will be resting all their starters by the time the Packers visit in week 17.

More tantalizingly, the Minnesota Vikings, coming off a horrible loss to Arizona, suddenly look immensely beatable. Time will soon tell if Sunday night’s 30-17 loss was a fluke game or a sign of major trouble brewing for Brett Favre’s new team, but the Packers must now be – and should be – relishing the potential for a third game this season – with much bigger stakes than the previous two – against their division rival.

So with all those positives swirling around Titletown, what’s there to complain about in Packerland?

Just this: The team’s 2009 games have been unwatchable.

Think about it: Have the Packers been part of any single entertaining 60 minutes of regular-season football all year?

Oh sure, there have been exciting moments, most coming off the arm of Rodgers:

Week 1’s 50-yard TD strike to Greg Jennings to give the Packers a comeback victory against Chicago. Jermichael Finley’s 62-yard catch and run in the loss at the Metrodome, I mean, Mall of America Field. Spencer Havner’s first career touchdown in week 6’s blowout of the Browns.

But those memorable moments and a few others like them haven’t been part of any game any Packer fan could consider memorable.

One note of clarification: When I say “memorable” or “entertaining” in relation to this season’s Packers games, I’m throwing out the four losses, all of which were close, entertaining affairs to football fans without a rooting interest in either team or to fans of the teams that beat Green Bay.

But I doubt many Packers fans were thinking, “Wow, what a watchable game!” after gifting Tampa Bay its only win of the season, or after helping to add to Minnesota’s NFC North division lead.

Much of what has made Green Bay’s eight victories dull affairs has not been their fault: Games this year featuring the Detroit Lions and Cleveland Browns have only been entertaining when the two NFL bottom-feeders have faced off against each other.

But a surprising inconsistency on offense — even in lopsided games — has been exceedingly frustrating. 

Think back to the game at St. Louis, where the Packers could only muster three first-quarter field goals, despite (thanks to turnovers) starting two drives inside the Rams’ 15-yard line? Or the home victory against Detroit when — after Rodgers hit for two quick first-quarter TDs — the Packers had to settle for four straight field goals, including on three drives that started in Lions’ territory?

The offensive line’s tendency to give up sacks at the rate that McDonald’s sells hamburgers obviously played a big role in that offensive inconsistency early in the season and added tremendously to the unwatchablity of that first half of the season. Thankfully, as I said, that problem has been largely rectified in recent weeks.

What hasn’t been fixed and what is much of the reason for the – as welcome as it has been – ugliness of the recent winning streak? The penalties.

Oh, the penalties.

Have you ever rented a DVD from a public library, particularly a children’s DVD? They are inevitably covered in scratches the way NBA stars are covered in tattoos. The scratches typically result in cringe-inducing skipping during playback, which makes you want to break the disc in order to save some other poor soul the mind-numbing frustration.

I get the same feeling while watching a Packer game, as every penalty flag thrown — and there are typically a lot, as the Packers lead the league in both penalties per game (8.2) and penalty yards per game (75.4) – is an annoying interruption to the game’s flow that makes me shift uncomfortably in my otherwise very uncomfortable seat.

Unlike the sacks, the penalty problem is not going away, as the Packers have totaled 36 penalties during their four-game winning streak, including 11 for 175 yards — and that was with the referees going relatively easy on cornerback Tramon Williams — in Monday night’s historically ugly game against Baltimore. With the Ravens adding 12 penalties for 135 yards, Monday’s game was so hard to sit through that the NFL should have granted refunds to every fan in attendance.

I know fans will say “I’d rather have an ugly win than a pretty loss,” and I get that. But, as normally unflappable ESPN announcer Mike Tirico exasperatingly stated on Monday night, teams just don’t make playoff runs having the discipline problems associated with chalking up massive amounts of penalties.

Green Bay has four – as I said before, now surprisingly winnable — games in which to clean up their act. They will likely go to the postseason whether they do or not. But if they don’t, just as the sacks killed them early in the season, the penalties could very well be their undoing in the playoffs.

And that would be truly unwatchable.

Wisconsin Badgers Football: Hawaiian Style

Who: Wisconsin Badgers @ Hawaii Warriors.

When: Saturday, December 5, 10:30 PM CST.

Where: Aloha Stadium, ESPN2.

In his recent memoir, David Letterman bandleader Paul Shaffer recounts seeing the famous (but still unavailable in any form on home video) 1964 concert film The T.A.M.I. Show and noting what a letdown the performance by The Rolling Stones was after the iconic display put on by the penultimate act, James Brown.

After the performance by Brown, the Stones, good though they were, couldn’t compare to The Hardest Working Man In Show Business. Keith Richards would later call their decision to follow Brown the worst move of their long career. (Really? Worse than releasing Dirty Work?)

The UW Badgers football team this week is in the same boat that The Rolling Stones were in 45 years ago. Just as Mick and Keith paled in comparison to The Godfather of Soul, Bret Bielema’s team can’t follow what Bo Ryan’s basketball team accomplished on Wednesday night at the Kohl Center in upsetting No. 6 Duke, one of the biggest wins ever for a program that already can boast plenty of them.

It doesn’t help in fueling excitement for UW football that the Badgers are coming off a bad loss to Northwestern, a loss which knocked the Badgers from the national rankings and dropped them to fourth in the conference standings.

It also doesn’t help in fueling excitement for UW football – except for those fans fortunate enough to make the trip  – that the Badgers are playing Hawaii, a dangerous 6-6 team on a four-game win streak looking for a win to get an invitation to the Hawaii Bowl.   

Basically, Wisconsin is in a no-win situation here: If they win (and they are favored by 12), then many will apathetically shrug their shoulders.

If the Badgers lose – and it wouldn’t be that shocking if they did – then many fans will likely disparage a season that in many ways has gone better than most anyone had a right to expect.

Here are the Channel 3000 3 storylines for Saturday’s late – it kicks off at 10:30 PM in Madison – regular-season finale:

1. Don’t Pass Me By: The Badgers’ secondary has been torched in recent weeks – we’re talking to you, Devin Smith – as it has allowed 881 yards and eight touchdowns through the air over its last three games. Indiana’s Ben Chappell (323 yards, 3 TDs) and Northwestern’s Mike Kafka in particular (326 yards, 2 TDs) looked like the second coming of Dan Fouts against the Badgers.

The bad news for Wisconsin? The Hawaii Warriors rank third in the nation in passing offense, racking up nearly 350 yards per game. The Badgers secondary will have to play its best game of the season to slow down senior quarterback Bryant Moniz (QB rating of 132.8 this season) and his favorite target, junior receiver Greg Salas, who averages 130 yards per game.

2. Oh, So That’s Why They’re Just 6-6: The Hawaii Warriors haven’t been very heroic on the defensive side of the ball, though, allowing nearly 400 yards and 28 points per game against mostly weaker WAC competition.

When the Warriors have played good teams, their defense has had more holes in it than Tiger Woods’s post-car accident mea culpa: They allowed 54 points and 472 yards of offense to Boise State, and 42 points and 277 rushing yards to Fresno State.

While it will surely be tempting for Bielema and offensive coordinator Paul Chryst to let Scott Tolzien finish his at times inconsistent season with a flourish, the smartest offensive game plan will be to let simply let John Clay, Montee Ball, Zach Brown, and whoever else feels like getting into the backfield run the ball and keep Hawaii’s scary offense off the field. The strategy won’t shock anyone, but it should work.

3. Clay Possessed: While running back John Clay was recently named the Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year, it’s likely he would surrender those honors if it meant erasing his crucial fumble late in the Northwestern loss as the Badgers were mounting what looked to be a game-winning drive.

If John Clay can use that fumble as motivation – as he has recently indicated he would – it should be a long night for the Hawaii defense.

Predicated final: Wisconsin 45, Hawaii 28.